COVID-19 projections and effects on mental health and addiction in Oklahoma

As leaders mobilize to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and its effect on Oklahomans’ physical health, it becomes increasingly important to recognize and plan for the behavioral health consequences of this crisis and its fallout. This report illustrates a possible scope of the mental health and substance abuse challenges that will arise from the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic downturn. This includes mental health- and addiction-related deaths, childhood trauma, and a growing need for treatment amid stress, anxiety, and loneliness.

The mental health consequences of this crisis will be far-reaching. This report touches on an important selection of these consequences, but it is not comprehensive. Mental health effects of pandemics of this scale are not well-studied and the full scope of impending mental health needs is difficult to project. This report uses historical natural disaster evidence and the well-studied effects of economic downturns, including projection methodologies developed by the Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute. We estimate that in the next 12 months:

• Hundreds of Oklahomans may die from behavioral health issues. We estimate 260 additional deaths from opioid overdoses and suicides alone due to economic hardship. If unemployment reaches as high as some experts project, this number could reach 700.
• Suicidal ideation and attempts will increase. More than 34,000 additional Oklahomans may experience suicidal thoughts and more than 9,400 additional Oklahomans may attempt suicide. If unemployment reaches as high as some experts project, these numbers could be as high as 100,000 and 30,000, respectively.
• Childhood mental health needs will increase substantially. For example, as many as 30% of children involved in quarantines may experience post-traumatic stress disorder.
• Unemployment and financial stress will increase drug addiction and alcoholism. For example, more than 14,000 additional Oklahomans may develop a drug use disorder, and an additional 4,500 Oklahomans may develop alcohol use disorder.
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These projections show that as the virus and economic downturn unfold, it is increasingly important to focus resources and policies on behavioral health treatment. A comprehensive behavioral health response will be needed. To support this, state policymakers can:

1. Prioritize funds for mental health and addiction treatment, even in a budget shortfall;
2. Ensure the treatment system that is overseen by the Oklahoma Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services is empowered, without distraction, to focus fully and adequately on the growing crisis; and,
3. Support policy solutions for minimizing new behavioral health-related deaths, addiction, and trauma, such as mental health insurance parity (Senate Bill 1718).
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See a one-page overview of our findings.

For similar national-level projections, visit the Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute.